Last night I was up playing poker till the early hours of the morning at The Club. I was playing in a PL cash game. The blinds are £1/£1 and I bought in £30.
First, I’m playing at a 5 handed table full of youngsters. The oldest player was 22 years of age. In my first hand I get dealt 99. The person in first position raises to £2. I call and everybody else, including the blinds, fold. The flop comes 987 with 2 clubs. Great flop for me. My opponent checks and I bet £5. He thinks for a bit and raises £5 on top to £10. I think for a short time and then decide to put £15 on top. I think this was a bit of an overbet and a bit of a rash decision. I was just scared that he was drawing to a straight. (But if he was drawing then why would he reraise). Anyway, I got the guy to fold and I think I could have taken a lot more money of him. Anyway, I won about £15 in the hand, so not too bad.
Later on in the evening I get moved to a long handed table. This table is pshyco. Everyone is going allin every other hand. And you can never get to see a flop for cheap, because there’s always reraising. Furthermore, I was in really bad position. The person sitting 2 seats behind is probably the biggest maniac I have ever seen play. I think for about 5-10 hands in a row, he was saying: “Pot, pot, pot….”. He was saying “Pot” preflop, on the flop, on the turn (if he had any chips left). It worked a few times for him. He managed to chase some people out of some pots. Then he hit a hand himself and made a lot of money (about £170 from £50). But then he kept on playing the same strategy over and over again and 5 hands later he had lost all his money.
Anyway, one hand I pick up AKs – a really sexy hand. I go “Pot”. Everyone folds to the BB who reraises my raise. Everyone else folds and the action is on me. I think for 2 seconds and call (I’m allin now for about £40-50). He shows A2s. I show AKs and my hand holds up to win the hand. My stack is now £94. This hand is an example of the mental cases that I was playing with. Who would go allin with A2s? Especially against someone with a tight table image. Maybe he was trying to push me off the pot, but I doubt it and it didn’t work.
A few rounds later I pick up TT. I’m in the SB. The pot was stradled (that means that the player in first position put in £2 before the cards were dealt. Everybody now has to put in £2 if they want to play the hand. Also, the player that stradled is last to act preflop). Nearly everybody on the table limped in – a family pot. I raise Pot. The person in the BB goes to look at his cards. He then says, “Repot”. Everybody at the table folds and it’s down to me. His repot means that I’ll have to reraise allin for my last £30, because I’m not going to fold postflop if some overcards come to my Ten. The pot is currently £45 and I have £75 left in chips. If I go allin. I’ll be able to win £120 and my £75. That’s 8:5 pot odds. Or 1.6:1. In the end I decided to fold. I’m not sure if it was for the right reasons though. I think that maybe I folded because I was scared to loose £75 more. If I fold now I only loose £15.
I fold and he shows AA – great fold in the end. But as I said, was it for the right reasons.
Here’s an analysis of the hand:
When he sees my raise he goes to look at his cards. The way he did it was as if to say. If I have a big hand I’ll go in, but anything else (which is 95% of the time) I’ll fold. His repot shows great strength, but at this table a raise could mean anything. However, the guy in the BB was a fairly decent player and he had respected my big raises in the past, so him coming over the top of me showed great strength.
The hands I would most likely put him on are AA, KK, QQ, AKs and AKo. There is also a chance that I’m ahed at this point if he has an overcard and an undercard. Or an underpair.
I would say that there was a 50% chance that he was holding an overpair (AA, KK, QQ or JJ). A 30% chance that he is holding AKs, AKo, AQs or AQo. A 20% chance that he is bluffing (this range includes an overcard and undercard and an underpair).
Against AK group:
0.3*0.55=0.165 = 16.5%
Against a bluff (let’s say I’m 70% to win. btw I made this group slightly bigger to account for the underpairs):
0.7*0.20=0.14 = 14%
So my total chances of winning are 40.5%
I needed to win 1 in 2.6 times to break even, or 38.4% of the time. This suggests that I should have made the call here. But I think I was being a bit nice and the chances that he had an overpair were 60%. New calculation:
Total chances of winning: 12+11+14=37%
This suggests that I should have folded. Overall, the numbers are quite close. And as I said before I was scared to loose the money – not a good reason to fold but I’m happy in the end that I did fold, because I didn’t really want to put £75 into a breakeven situation. £75 is way out of my bankroll.
In the end it turned out to be a good fold. Maybe it was my gut instinct telling me to fold rather than the fact that I was scared of loosing the money.