I just wanted to write a short most on wether poker is luck or skill. I think any experienced will know the answer to this. This post is aimed at new players and outsiders.
Poker is 100% skill in the long run. In the short run there is definitely a huge element of luck involved.
People argue that poker is 50% luck. Some say even higher. Some will tell you lower. There are arguments will involve describing a hand where they were a 81.3% favourite to win the hand when they went allin with AA vs 22 preflop and they got bad beaten.
This is looking at it in the short run. Over a 1000 of hands of AA vs 22. AA will definitely win more often than 22. Over 1,000,000 hands AA will not only win more often than 22, but it will very close to the 81.3% of the confrontations.
That’s what poker is all about – the long run.
A lot of people make living playing poker. This does not happen because they are lucky. This happens because their skill gives them an x% edge over their opponents. And if they play enough hands this will turn them a profit.
There is a 0% chance of 22 winning more hands than AA when allin preflop over a sample of 100 hands. If you’re not convinced imagine a sample of 1000 hands or 1 million hands.
Poker is a game of the long run. In the short run anyone can win – but the better player is more likely to win.